Questions facing the Indians as the second half — ceremonial as it may be — arrives:
1. Do they add a frontline starter?
At the moment, I doubt it, only because of the quality of starters purportedly available and the fact that so few teams are currently identifying themselves as sellers. There is little sense in the Indians going all-in on a short-term fix like Matt Garza. This team is built to contend beyond just 2013, and it’s definitely doubtful they’d be able to lock up Garza beyond 2013.
Still, the Indians could benefit from another starting arm atop the rotation. Not that getting Zach McAlllister back won’t be a huge boost. Not that Corey Kluber hasn’t been encouraging. Not that Danny Salazar didn’t grab everybody’s attention in his big-league debut. But the rotation lacks the kind of tangible track records that would make you feel better about the postseason potential.
As far as outside options are concerned, Yovani Gallardo strikes me as Ubaldo 2.0, except without the absurdly excellent half a season Ubaldo had put together at the start of 2010. Rising pitch counts and declining velocity are not a good combo, and there would be questions about how well Gallardo would transition to the American League. On the bright side, he’s under contractual control for $11.25 million for 2014, which is not all that unreasonable given the market conditions.
Bud Norris seems to make more sense. He has already made the transition to the AL and has a 3.63 ERA at the break, though his WHIP has risen and his K/BB ratio has lowered. Still, he keeps the ball in the yard, he’s averaging six innings per start and he’s making just $3 million this year with two more arbitration seasons looming. That’s the kind of guy the Indians need to be targeting, to the extent that they’re going to pull the trigger on a deal at all. Maybe they’ll feel more comfortable going with what they’ve got. It would be hard to blame them, given the costs of an upgrade. We’ll see.
2. Can they fix the bullpen?
The bullpen has not been the team strength it once was, though Chris Perez’s numbers since his return (0.90 ERA, .216 average against) have been extraordinarily encouraging. The guy who worries you is Vinnie Pestano, because (and understand I’m only speculating here) it’s hard to believe he’s not fighting his way through some sort of physical limitation. Undoubtedly, ramping up quickly for the World Baseball Classic did him no favors. Whatever the case, not having Pestano settled into that eighth inning exposes Joe Smith to more wear and tear, and the Indians have to be careful with Cody Allen’s innings in his first full season. So you can sense the need for another setup option, though I’m not sure the Indians are inclined to delve too deeply into that market. What I do expect is for them to at least explore another left-handed setup option, because the trade market affords quite a few of those, as MLB Trade Rumors breaks down.
3. Do they trade Asdrubal Cabrera?
This question — one that came to the forefront upon Buster Olney’s speculation last week about a potential match between the Indians and Cardinals — prompts a question:
Listen, not that my opinion matters even the slightest, but I’ve been on the “trade Asdrubal” bandwagon (if such a thing exists) since the end of ’11. I thought, at the time, that his value would never be higher.
I remained convinced they ought to trade Asdrubal last winter, when it seemed the Indians, with Mike Aviles in hand and questions about their status as true contenders hanging in the air, could take advantage of a weaker-than-weak free-agent shortstop market.
And however this 2013 season turns out, I’ll remain in favor of moving Asdrubal elsewhere, because he’ll still have trade value and the Tribe has reasonable bridges on-hand and on the farm to get to the Francisco Lindor era (with front-office fingers crossed in the hope that the Lindor era is more fruitful than, say, the Andy Marte era).
But right now, the Indians are in the thick of a division race or, at worse, a Wild Card race, and as much as it might make long-term baseball sense to deal Asdrubal for a top-end pitching prospect, that deal makes little sense in the immediate. I know he’s having a subpar season, and I know there are questions and concerns about the Tribe’s ability to hang in this division race. But they’ve made it this far, and dealing your starting shortstop/weakening your bench would be an awfully difficult sell to that clubhouse.
Again, I get trading Asdrubal, and I expect the Indians to do their due diligence and explore his worth. I just don’t necessarily agree with trading him now.
4. What are they going to get out of Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds?
Reynolds is batting .178 with a .532 OPS since May 7. Swisher is batting .192 with a .587 OPS since May 30. These are completely arbitrary endpoints on my part, but there’s enough distance between the endpoints to make you sweat a little bit, if you’re Terry Francona. Swisher’s shoulder situation can’t possibly be helping matters, and Reynolds is a guy prone toward boom and busts. But because there is little reason to believe the Indians are going to target a position player before the Trade Deadline, it’s incumbent upon these two to perform up to their perceived par. The Indians have actually scored the sixth-most runs per game in the Majors since June 1, but it was a fundamentally deeper offense when Reynolds was on a prodigious pace and Swisher was serving as a serviceable No. 4. They don’t need either of those guys performing out of their minds. But they need something.
5. How illustrative is the record against the Tigers?
The Indians are 3-9 against the Tigers, but the Tigers are 43 and 39 against everybody else. So there’s the difference in your division race, right there. If you’re going to beat them, you’ve got to beat them. The perceived schedule strengths of these two clubs are fairly similar, so there’s no denying the importance of Aug. 5-8 at Progressive Field and Aug. 30-Sept. 1 at Comerica Park.
Most of us are assuming the Tigers will outlast the Indians on pure talent level in the rotation and lineup. That’s not a knock on the Tribe, just the reality of a Little Caesar’s-aided investment on the part of Mike Ilitch. But the Indians still have the ability to alter that opinion, and it starts with the head-to-heads.
They ask themselves the question in the Indians’ front office, and the fact that it’s a question at all gives us a hint at the answer:
Is this rotation good enough?
Good enough to outlast the Tigers in the American League Central race? Good enough to survive a postseason series?
Look, the Tribe rotation has been better than anybody — even those in the front office — could have reasonably expected, given the circumstances, and that’s one reason the Indians find themselves in the division race post-Independence Day.
Going into the season, there was simply not enough track record or tangible upside to label the rotation anything other than a work in progress. And there has been progress, no question.
Justin Masterson is the ace he was in ’11. Ubaldo Jimenez needs about 30 pitches to complete an inning (and he certainly didn’t complete that sixth inning Thursday in Kansas City), but he’s not the total train wreck he had been for too much of his Tribe tenure. Scott Kazmir has made an incredible comeback, Corey Kluber has shown some flashes of strike-throwing brilliance and Zach McAllister will provide a second-half boost, provided he’s not dealing with the fickle finger of fate, a la Adam Miller.
These are good things.
But is that good enough?
Well, quite possibly not, which is why the Tribe’s primary trade target will be an area that’s costly and tricky to target. While the offense has shown a streaky side borne out of some instability in the Nos. 3 and 4 spots, it’s deep, balanced and multi-faceted enough to be left alone. While the bullpen has been a shell of its former self, the left-handed hole so evident in setup situations is likely repairable without sacrificing the future of the franchise.
The rotation, though, is tricky, and right now Chris Antonetti and Co. are weighing the benefits of going all-in on upgrading it.
They know they have depth. They know that with McAllister on the mend and Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco on the farm, they have enough bodies to get by, if nothing else.
But do they have the horses to truly tango with the Tigers down the stretch? If the season was at stake in a late-September, three-game series, how would the Indians’ best three match up against the opposition’s best three?
The problem with this rotation right now is that it can’t be trusted to take the pressure off a beleaguered bullpen. The fundamental difference between the Indians’ rotation and that of the Tigers is that Tribe starters have recorded an out in the seventh inning 31 times while the Tigers’ starters have done so 45 times. That’s the kind of difference that’s going to assert itself over the course of 162.
With the Trade Deadline now less than four weeks away, the Indians would love to address that issue, if they can find a fit. They see no point in looking for back-of-the-rotation alternatives, because they already have plenty of those. Adding a veteran merely for the sake of adding a veteran solves nothing (and in the case of Brett Myers, it cost $7 million more than nothing).
We know the names in the rumor mill, for whatever that’s worth, and the list of No. 1-3 types is predictably short. Cliff Lee makes too much money, Jake Peavy likely won’t be dealt within the division, Ricky Nolasco is probably going to command a significant overpay. Jason Vargas would be a nice improvement if he was healthy (he’s not), as would Matt Garza. But the Indians never envisioned 2013 as an all-or-nothing effort, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them place more emphasis on guys like Bud Norris, Jeff Samardzija and Yovani Gallardo, who are contractually controlled beyond this season.
Two years ago, the Indians were in a similar situation at this point in the calendar, leading the Tigers by a game and a half after the Fourth and searching for more starting stability. They wound up dealing their top two pitching prospects for Ubaldo, comfortable with the knowledge that he’d be around through at least 2012, with two team options beyond.
Well, to pull off a move of similar import (and hopefully of more impact), the Indians would have to get quite a bit more creative, for the majority of their prominent prospects are in Double-A or lower. They do, however, have a decent stash of middle-of-the-diamond talent (Francisco Lindor, Dorssys Paulino, Tyler Naquin, Ronny Rodriguez, Luigi Rodriguez, Tony Wolters), so an impact trade is not out of the question.
It’s incredibly difficult to imagine the Indians trading Lindor, but, then again, it was equally difficult to imagine them trading Drew Pomeranz two years ago. There is a growing suspicion, internally and otherwise, that the Tribe’s overall roster composition is more legit this year than it was in ’11. And postseason opportunities are precious, so you can’t rule anything out.
The Indians have a chance, but they also have a need that becomes a little more apparent just about every time a starter not named Justin Masterson takes the mound. This rotation is better than expected, but is it good enough? Right now, the Indians are asking themselves how far they’re willing to go to address that question.
Back in Spring Training, Terry Francona was quick to tell people he truthfully did not know how good this Indians team would be in 2013. And nearing the halfway point, it remains a downright difficult club to get a firm read on.
That’s because the Indians vacillate so seamlessly between the awesome stretches and the abysmal ones. They’ve had three win streaks of four games or more and three losing streaks of five games or more. And were it not for a botched pop-up and an untimely wild pitch, they’d be riding an eight-game winning streak right now, directly on the heels of an eight-game losing streak.
What a ride.
The Indians’ home-run reliance made for fireworks in the season’s first six weeks or so, but the power pace has cooled considerably of late, and losing Asdrubal Cabrera to a quadriceps strain (and, ergo, depleting the bench) hasn’t helped. A back-end bullpen that once thrived on health and dependability now has neither, as questions linger not just about when Chris Perez (shoulder) will return but what the Indians will be getting when he comes back, particularly given the off-the-field issues that hang over him and his wife and dog.
Of course, bullpens are prone to flukiness and flakiness, so it doesn’t take much for a good situation to become uncomfortable. And the Indians’ starting staff, no matter the specifics (such as the surprisingly captivating improvement of Corey Kluber), has been neither remarkably better nor worse than anticipated, on the whole.
It’s the lineup that seems most responsible for the Tribe’s decidedly streaky side, and to this, I think, a great deal of credit must be given to the lack of a true No. 3 or No. 4 hitter.
Nick Swisher was brought in to be that focal point type of guy, but he hasn’t really produced like that guy. Doesn’t mean he won’t, doesn’t mean he can’t. Just means that he hasn’t, and his recent shoulder woes undoubtedly contribute to that bottom line, which is that Swisher’s .739 OPS is below the MLB average for first basemen (.776). His struggle to produce like the so-called “traditional” cleanup man was one fear when the Indians gave four years and $56 million to a guy who was at his best batting fifth or sixth in a loaded Yankee lineup.
Mark Reynolds <i>can</i> be that kind of hitter, but only when he’s on the good side of the hot-and-cold streaks you get with a guy whose 162-game average is 34 homers and 212 strikeouts. You take the bad with the good, and, lately, it’s been mostly bad. Tribe fans are discovering that when Reynolds gets lost, it’s the no cell phone service/GPS broke/no gas station in sight kinda lost. We’re talking lost.
Cabrera is the Tribe’s usual No. 3 hitter when he’s healthy, but the trouble you run into with Asdrubal is when he actively tries to put together another 25-homer season. That was, after all, the primary problem with Cabrera in the season’s first month, when he was largely invisible. If he focuses on contact, he’s a .300 hitter, but not the dynamic hitter he was in that first half of 2011. In an ideal world, he’s probably a No. 2 hitter, and the same goes for Jason Kipnis.
You know who has the second-most plate appearances in the cleanup spot for the Tribe this year? Michael Brantley. Nothing against the man they call “Dr. Smooth,” but that’s not ideal casting (although I write this just after he doubled his season home run total in a single night).
What would be ideal for the Indians is to have Carlos Santana raking in that No. 4 spot. But Santana’s position simply gets in the way, and — let’s be honest — his positioning is increasingly difficult to defend.
The Indians, dating back to the Victor Martinez days, have long been hung up on the idea of having a premium offensive presence behind the plate. With Martinez, it made sense, as, even in his prime, he didn’t have the power potential to truly be an elite-hitting first baseman.
With Santana, though, the so-called premium is particularly costly. Not just because the abuse Santana takes behind the dish can affect his power production at the plate, but because Santana seems to be regressing as a catcher. Even if the recent spate of wild pitches can be shaken off as a slump, of sorts, the 13-percent success rate at throwing out opposing baserunners is a defensive liability that is tough to tolerate.
The Indians have wrestled with the question of what’s best for Santana in the past, and the Swisher, Bourn and Reynolds signings essentially served to cement his catcher status for the time being, given their effect on first base. Then Yan Gomes’ surge complicated matters, in a good way, and right now it’s hard not to argue that the Indians are a better team — at least defensively — with Gomes behind the plate and Santana elsewhere (preferably DH).
It’s not that Santana isn’t putting up elite offensive numbers for a catcher. He is.
“If he were a position player,” Francona said, “he’d still be really good. But the fact that he’s a catcher makes him great.”
Very true. But the mental and physical grind of catching does take a toll and does distract from the adjustments in approach Santana could stand to make at the plate. Teams started to put the shift on Santana when he bats from the left-hand side because he struggles to drive the ball the other way, and he also tends to get a little mechanically hyper with his swing. And even if those issues have absolutely nothing to do with catching, Santana’s defensive role does lead Francona to believe his best bet is to bat him lower in the order.
“When our lineup is going good, we can hit him lower, so he’s not coming in after the first inning and getting the shin guards off with the responsibility of hitting cleanup,” Francona said. “So that’s kind of on me. And at some point, we’ll probably remedy that when we get Swish back and everything. I think that can help.”
So, again, the Indians have a complicated cleanup situation. And the No. 3 spot isn’t any clearer. If Lonnie Chisenhall starts hitting like he did in Triple-A, well, hey, that’s a viable option for the three-hole. But obviously that’s easier said than done.
Besides, Chisenhall has his own potential positional identity crisis. The Indians weren’t really happy with what they saw from him defensively during his Columbus stay (for obvious reasons, as Chisenhall made eight errors in 27 games), and there is some question as to whether the hot corner is really a long-term fit (remember, Chisenhall was already moved from short to third after he was drafted to address concerns about his range at short).
Maybe Chisenhall will have to pull an Alex Gordon and move to a corner outfield spot before he reaches his true big-league potential. Though Chisenhall is quick to note he’s not looking to move, he’s equally quick to admit his defense has been a slow process.
“In Triple-A, you’ve got a lot of the left field/first-base types who play different positions every night,” Chisenhall said. “It’s a little more comfortable knowing what position you’re playing, but if something like that does occur, I don’t think it would be an issue, athletically, getting there.”
In the meantime, in Santana, Swisher, Bourn, Cabrera, Kipnis, Reynolds, et al., the Indians have a great deal of offensive talent, when healthy. But they don’t have those true No. 3 and 4 types, and that makes a big difference in a 162-game schedule.
This team seems intent on making those 162 games as much of an adventure as possible.
Well, I guess it wasn’t a debate so much as it was one sportswriter (and Crocker Park resident) willing to go to great lengths to argue with much more sensible, reasonable individuals about whether or not he lives at a mall.
The writer in question shall remain nameless here, but he would prefer Crocker Park be identified as a “High-End Shopping District,” rather than an “outdoor mall.”
His point, to the extent that he had one, is that if Browns and Indians players are inhabiting Crocker Park’s self-described luxury apartments and Michael Symon can open his burger joint there and Coach can sell its overpriced purses there, it is as high-end as a person could come to expect in suburban Cleveland.
Maybe that’s true, but a rebuttal — and a pretty darned good one, at that — is offered merely by reading aloud some of Crocker Park’s retail offerings and evaluating whether the term “high-end” indeed applies:
Gap (we’re off to a bad start)
Bath & Body Works (getting colder)
Nordstrom Rack (not Nordstrom, mind you, but the place where Nordstrom sells all the stuff that didn’t sell)
Best Cuts (do we really need to keep going?)
OfficeMax (seriously… what are we doing here?)
Giant Eagle (the high-end crowd doesn’t typically go crazy for Fuel Perks)
And here’s the kicker, which the Crocker Park web site is proud to announce as “Coming Soon!”…
Sears Appliances (not to be confused with the Sears Appliances on Rodeo Drive)
Understand, none of this is meant as a knock on Crocker Park, which is certainly more high-end than the wheat pasture that used to inhabit that land. It’s just that Crocker Park is one roof shy being the kind of place where you’d find a Spencer’s Gifts. It’s a mall. A mall where people can live and dine and socialize. But a mall just the same. It has a Buckle.
This is, however, one of the great traits of the human species, our ability to reframe reality to our liking, be it positive (Parmatown Mall, by the way, is now known as “The Shoppes of Parma”) or negative. And we see this in baseball — simply as a byproduct of it being played every freaking day — all the time.
We see it, especially, with these 2013 Indians, who have been streaky enough this season to offer plenty of opportunity for debate. You’re either convinced that Ubaldo’s turned a corner and the rotation is going to hang tough or you’re just waiting for the wheels to fall off and burn. You’re either undaunted by that stretch of six losses in seven games and the betrayal provided by the bullpen or you’re convinced Chris Perez is one setback away from shoulder surgery and Vinnie Pestano’s going to blow out his elbow and a funk is going to envelop the late-inning efforts. You’re either utterly enamored with the offense or concerned it is too home run-reliant and strikeout-prone. The Trevor Bauer-penned theme song is either music to your ears or 99 seconds of your life you wish you had back.
I’m on record, for better or worse, that I believe this is a fundamentally different ballclub than the ones in recent years past. I don’t believe the Indians are going to completely collapse. Do I think they can give the Tigers an honest, earnest run for their money (quite literally) in the AL Central? Well, that’s complicated, to say the least. But with two Wild Cards on the table, if you can simply hover north of .500 into the late summer, you’re in the conversation. And this is a town that could use a good conversation.
But the Indians will frustrate you, no doubt. They have a way, at times, of playing into the less-than-positive perceptions and negative noise. Certainly, when a cemented strength such as the bullpen becomes such a gaping, glaring hole in such a short span, it rattles the senses. But just as adamantly as the mall resident defended Crocker Park, Terry Francona defends his ‘pen. He seems genuine in his enthusiasm over the bullpen depth guys like Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw have afforded him. He is unfazed by the current absence of a proven closer, and with good reason. Look around the game: The “proven closer” label is almost worthless, anyway.
Because the Indians are so power-prone and because their rotation doesn’t have a great deal of track record on which to rely and because all bullpens – not just the Tribe’s – can be a disaster waiting to happen, the streaks and stretches, both good and bad, are going to keep coming. This is not what you’d call an elite team — not a “high-end” team, if you will — and so at times it can be an utterly maddening team.
But it is a team that’s already shown it is capable of some serious, sustained runs of positive play and one that could make things awfully interesting around here in the months that matter.
Maybe even the months when the weather cools and you need a coat to stroll the grounds of that outdoor mall in Westlake.
PS: Do people still do “shout-outs”? Is that still a thing? Because I want to send a shout-out to Ramon Diaz.
Ramon has worked for the Indians — first as a batboy, then as a clubhouse attendant — for the last eight seasons, and it’s been a real pleasure to get to know him all this time. Born with nothing, Ramon’s worked for everything he’s got. And he’s got a lot. Degrees from St. Ignatius and Columbia University, an extensive shoe collection and, now, a job opportunity with Jay-Z’s Roc Nation in New York City (where I assume he will be pushing hard for Trevor Bauer’s lucrative rap deal).
Because he’s headed to bigger and better things, this is Ramon’s final homestand with the Indians, and I just wanted to use this space to wish him well. Ramon used to ask me for my “Writing Tip of the Day.” I ran dry after about three days because, well… you’ve read this blog, so you know my availability of advice in this area is probably pretty limited. But as a writer, I do know a good story when I see one, and Ramon’s is both a great life story and a great baseball story. The connections and experiences he’s made in his time with the Tribe will stay with him wherever he goes, and I’m sure glad I got to cross paths with him along the way.
PPS: You want to know something not-so-fun? When the Indians rattled off wins in 18 of 22 games, my boss and I wondered, “What’s the worst that could happen?” I asked Elias to look up the worst final records among teams that won 18 of 22 at any point, thinking that would probably be a pretty high floor.
Well, uh, it’s not.
1978 A’s: 69-93
2004 Rays: 70-91
1978 White Sox: 71-90
1914 White Sox: 70-84
1994 A’s: 51-63
2008 Tigers: 74-88
1966 Reds: 76-84
And there were several more in that range, but you get the idea. The lesson, as always: Never underestimate how long a 162-game schedule really is.
I believe in the Indians.
I believe that what’s happening these last few weeks — the wins in 18 of their last 22, the plus-54 run differential in that span, the relentless pursuit of runs even against Cy-caliber arms and the opportunistic approach to the late innings — is more omen than mirage.
I believe that this is a deeper, more balanced, more complex club than the ones that faded — and faded thoroughly — in 2011 and ’12.
I believe that while a manager’s in-game effect is often overstated, the best ones know how to instill a culture of camaraderie and confidence, and that’s what Terry Francona has done here.
I believe Francona when he praises the job first-year pitching coach Mickey Calloway has done with the pitching staff, which is exceeding all expectations.
I don’t believe that the rotation will sustain a 3.24 ERA (which is what it has posted in this 22-game stretch) over the long haul, but I do believe that it doesn’t necessarily have to.
I believe a versatile lineup with a deep bench, an array of switch-hitters and a ton of speed and power is dangerous enough that you need only an average assemblage of starting arms to survive.
I believe that, one way or another, the Indians can patch together at least an average rotation, particularly with the way Justin Masterson and Zach McAllister have looked from Day 1 and the way Ubaldo Jimenez has been pitching lately.
I believe bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr. when he says this team has that “’95 style. You just come to the ballpark expecting to win and never say die.”
I also believe Alomar when he compares this club to ones of recent past and says, “We have more depth. When you give guys a rest, you’re not losing anything. That’s the big difference between the past and now. You’ve got guys with track records — like Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn and Jason Giambi — who have been in winning situations before and can help the young guys stay on the path and keep from collapsing.”
I believe that feeling rubs off on guys like Ryan Raburn and Yan Gomes and helps them make the most of their limited playing time.
I believe the Indians are not one injury away from a complete collapse at any given moment, as they were in ’11 and ’12.
I believe that if the Indians are still in the hunt come July, general manager Chris Antonetti will try to be as creative and aggressive in the summer trade market as he was in the winter one.
I believe his aggressiveness and creativity won’t have to be quite as desperate as it was in ’11, when he sold the farm for Ubaldo.
I believe that there won’t be many days like Monday, when Vinnie Pestano, Chris Perez and Joe Smith each served up a late-inning home run.
I believe that the Indians were awfully lucky to win a game in which Pestano, Perez and Smith each served up a late-inning home run.
I believe it’s better to be lucky than good.
I believe the Indians are both.
I believe the AL Central is more interesting than expected.
I believe the Tigers’ bullpen is making it more interesting than expected.
I believe the next two days, when the Indians face the Tigers’ Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in succession, will tell us quite a bit about the current state of both clubs.
I believe we’ll probably read too much into the results.
I believe it’s also kind of fun to read too much into the results.
I believe that it’s the eighth week of a six-month baseball season, so my beliefs are very much subject to change.
I believe that, in Cleveland especially, some part of you is always waiting for the catch, the drawback, the booby trap.
But I believe that it’s hard to watch a team win 18 of 22, sometimes in the wildest of ways, and not believe.
The Indians have been a contending team at this late (and by late, I of course mean … not at all late) juncture of the season schedule for three consecutive years. They have established a tradition of early season excellence. Or at least competence, which, even when followed by second-half heartbreak, at least beats the alternative option of an all-uphill effort in which you truly feel each and every step of the 162-game schedule.
Now, contention means different things at different times. A year ago at this time, the Indians were in first place in the AL Central, but you still had to talk yourself into believing it. Their standing was a product more of their surroundings than their own success. Their top two starters (Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez) had ERAs north of 5.00, their best hitter (Shin-Soo Choo) wasn’t hitting, their stopper (Derek Lowe) was striking out nobody and Jose Lopez, Aaron Cunningham, Shelley Duncan and Johnny Damon — none of whom are even in the Majors now — were getting plenty of playing time.
That Tribe team was still in “contention” — by the loosest definition of the word — in late July, but not enough to compel Chris Antonetti to add anything more than Brent Lillibridge (no, he’s not in the Majors now, either). When they won just five games in August, it felt more cognitively correct than when they won 16 in May.
I’d say 2011’s “contention” was more believable than ‘12, if only because of the mathematics involved. The Indians went 30-15 out the gate. I still can’t wrap my head around that. While the Tigers certainly had star power, they had not yet gone overboard in their pursuit of a monster middle-of-the-order and they had not yet assembled a resplendent rotation beyond Justin Verlander. It didn’t really seem a foregone conclusion, as it did in ’12, that the Tigers would wake up one day and begin dominating the division.
Besides, did I mention? 30-15! All suspicions that the Indians were “out over their skis,” as one scout told me at the time, were countered a little bit by the simple fact that the Indians had bought themselves some mathematical breathing room. It is, after all, hard to screw up being 15 games over .500 (and seven games up in the division) more than a quarter of the way through the schedule.
Naturally, they finished under .500.
All right, so here we are again. We’re basically at the quarter-pole of the season, and the Indians are contending. Through 39 games, they are 22-17, a half-game back of Detroit. More to the point, they’ve won 14 of their last 18 and are “undefeated” in their last nine series (five wins, four splits). They are, as Yankees manager Joe Girardi put it the other day, “a much different club” than they were even a month ago.
“They’re swinging the bats really, really well,” Girardi said. “There’s balance in their lineup, and there’s speed.”
The pitching has come a long way in a short time, too. If you watched Masterson shut down Girardi’s Yanks for nine innings Monday afternoon, what you saw was a bona fide ace effort on a day when the Indians had to preserve their bullpen. If you were the most pessimistic of people when it comes to Jimenez (and my hand is raised), even you had to be intrigued by the way he tamed the Tigers in a ballpark where he has traditionally had nothing but trouble. I remain skeptical about a guy who had to, in his own words, “erase everything,” shortly after a seven-week Spring Training camp, but not defiantly so. Furthermore, Zach McAllister continues to defy expectations based off his Minor League career, Scott Kazmir continues a strong comeback effort and Trevor Bauer seems to get a little bit better with each spot start. Where once I compared the Tribe’s rotation outlook to turnpike dining, they are now starting to resemble that dive off the side of the road that has surprisingly good burgers. Hey, that’s improvement.
Anyway, it’s the lineup, when it’s rolling, that makes this team inherently fun to watch. And while that lineup has provided enough power to push the Tribe to nine blowout wins, the most compelling stat is that the Indians have won 10 of their 13 one-run games. For that, you can thank the timely hitting, a defense that has been steady if not always showy and, of course, the continuing reliability of the relief corps, even though Vinnie Pestano has been missed.
How does all this compare to 2011? I have no freaking clue. I know the division is deeper now than it was then, thanks to the Tigers’ elite standing and the Royals’ revamped rotation. But I also know there’s a little bit more conviction in that Tribe clubhouse, given that it’s a more veteran club that can actually account for these early season accomplishments, to say nothing of the two-time World Series-winner at the top dugout step.
“Then [in ‘11], we were raking, and it was, at times, maybe playing a hair out of our shoes, if we were being honest and evaluating it correctly,” Masterson said. “This year, we have guys who are still not where they’d like to be and everybody’s not perfect every night. But the pitching is picking up the offense, the offense is picking up the pitching at times, the defense is helping everybody, and the bullpen’s as great as it’s always been. There’s a little bit more consistency, guys are more comfortable, and I like where we’re at and what we can do for the rest of the season.”
It’s a good sign that the offense has been as productive as it has (sixth in MLB in runs per game, fifth in on-base percentage, first in slugging percentage) despite Michael Bourn missing more than 60 percent of the games so far, Lonnie Chisenhall earning a demotion to Triple-A and Jason Kipnis starting rather slowly. The performance of the bench has been encouraging, and, among the regulars, the only guys who might be accused of playing out of their minds are Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana. Reynolds won’t keep hitting a home run every 11 at-bats or so, and Santana won’t slug at a .600 clip. But Reynolds’ pure power is certainly not a novel development, and Santana strikes me as a breakout-player-in-waiting finally learning how to separate the offensive and defensive sides of his game.
Overall, the offense, it seems, still has more upside than downturn in its near future. And an offense this explosive can do quite a bit to overcome a merely average starting staff.
Again, though, I don’t know what this means. I don’t necessarily know that this team is any more equipped to handle 162 than the ’11 and ’12 teams were. I can certainly speculate that it is, based on that aforementioned managerial influence and the track records on the roster. But as this 2013 club began to come together over the winter, it became clear that it was going to be an especially difficult club to forecast.
The good news is that it’s a team that’s interesting and, in keeping with the Tribe’s newfound tradition of early season strength, in contention at the quarter-pole. The better news is that there is a decent degree of believability that this is not necessarily the peak.
Naturally, nothing I write in this space can compare to the captivating nature of the Amanda Berry, Gina DeJesus and Michelle Knight story. Or frankly, to the entertaining nature of the now-viral interview with Charles Ramsey.
But if you’re up for a distraction from the biggest story in Cleveland — or anywhere — right now, let’s talk a little bit about the Indians, winners of seven of eight. It’s been a stretch worthy of a Ramsey-like thumbs up, and, in it, we’ve seen the “dead giveaway” as to what makes the Tribe offense click:
Mark Reynolds’ 460-foot home run Monday night landed just shy of the scoreboard that sits atop the left-field bleachers at Progressive Field — a prodigious poke lacking only the satisfying smack of advertising signage that accompanied a blast off Mark McGwire’s bat in these parts back in ’97.
Even in batting practice, you simply don’t see many baseballs hit in that area. But what you do see, thus far in this 2013 season, are plenty of balls leaving the yard when the Indians are at the plate.
They hit four of them in Monday’s series-opening victory over the A’s, and they’ve averaged 1.52 per game this season, more than any other team in the Majors.
“That’s a good category to lead,” Terry Francona said.
Indeed, hitting a home run every 23.05 at-bats, as the Indians are, stands out at a time when the Major League average is one per 32.64 at-bats.
But what also stands out about the Indians is the way that profound production has come not necessarily in a steady flow but in a series of flamboyant bursts.
“If you look at our games,” Reynolds said, “we’ve either been getting blown out or blowing people out.”
If we define a “blowout” as a game decided by five or more runs, as Baseball Reference does, then the Indians have been involved in 12 of them — seven wins and five losses — in 29 games played. It’s made for somewhat erratic work for the back-end relievers, and it’s also ensured that the Indians are either as entertaining and enticing an offense as exists in the game today or, well, a bit on the dull side, depending on when you happen to tune in. They’ve scored 7.8 runs per game in their wins and 2.29 runs per game in their losses.
It is difficult, then, to get a real sense of what kind of team the Indians are, especially when their prized leadoff pickup, Michael Bourn, has been limited to just 10 games played because of injury.
But if these outburst of offense are any indication of the Tribe’s capability as the weather warms, then this could be a club that outhits the deficiencies in a starting staff that, while showing improvement, has a 4.85 ERA on the season. That’s not a great equation, of course, but the Indians will take whatever works.
For now, the offense seems to work on a “boom or bust” cycle, though Francona doesn’t see it that way. What he sees, he said, is a team that is not totally reliant on the long ball.
“I think we have a team that has a lot of speed,” he said. “We swing and miss sometimes. I think we knew that [going into the season]. I think the last week or 10 days, we’ve done a really good job of extending innings, then taking advantage of it. We’ve been a little better situationally.”
You saw that, notably, last Friday, when Jason Kipnis caught the Twins off-guard with a perfect bunt single to the left side of the infield, scoring Yan Gomes from third. But when 41 percent of your games are decided by five runs or more (and more than half are decided by four or more), such situational skills don’t always shine through. The Indians’ offseason acquisitions brought them two things that were obvious in their absence last season — power and speed — but thus far only one of those elements has made many headlines.
“There hasn’t been a lot of opportunity for bags,” Reynolds said. “Once the sample sizes get bigger and we play in closer games, especially with Bourn back [possibly later this week], I think you’ll see the speed and the little things play out.”
In the meantime, the Indians survive largely on the big things, with Reynolds’ 460-footer (one of 10 homers he’s hit in what has been a sensational start) chief among them. And they survive with what has been a productive bench. With Bourn out, Ryan Raburn slid into starting duties and turned in the hottest stretch of anybody in baseball last week (13-for-22 with four homers, one double and nine RBI, earning Player of the Week honors), and Mike Aviles (.744 OPS in 56 plate appearances) and Jason Giambi (.821 OPS in 36 plate appearances) have also made positive contributions in limited time.
“That’s how your team starts to get personality and form its identity,” Francona said. “We’ve used everybody on our ballclub.”
The Indians have largely hovered around .500, and that might wind up being the identity of a team with so much unproven on the pitching staff. Twelve of their 15 wins have come against teams that currently have a losing record. But we’ve said all along that if that starting staff can just be league average (and Ubaldo Jimenez’s last two starts have been a particularly encouraging step toward that direction), the Indians’ bats could make this an interesting season.
Thus far, the bats have done their damage in bunches, equal parts fascinating and frustrating, depending on the day. When they connect, they take this team a long way.
Up to 460 feet, in fact.
Spinning, I’ve come to learn in recent months, is a great way to expend a tremendous amount of energy while going absolutely nowhere. It is both exhilarating and defeating, offering all the physical benefits of performance cycling without any of the beautiful vistas or genuine sense of accomplishment in excursion.
That’s why it takes a good spinning instructor to motivate you through the 60-minute nightmare that is pumping your legs and sweating profusely in a small, poorly ventilated room in a suburban Cleveland gym. And while some instructors will try to get you to use your imagination — “We’re coming up on a big hill!” they’ll shout excitedly, while you ponder which hallucinatory drug they have recently ingested — the best know that the way to galvanize people in an exercise environment is to fill the air with tunes. Glorious, pump-up tunes.
Naturally, this is where it gets tricky. Because if we know one thing about the world today, it’s that our beliefs in politics, religious practices, social and moral standards and, most of all, music could not be more diverse, sometimes frustratingly so.
It is, then, with much chagrin that I report that my personal preference — a spinning class based solely on Springsteen (I would call it “Spinsteen”) — has not yet been met. The instructors whose classes I’ve attended tend to veer more toward the Top 40 or the ‘80s hair metal or the early ‘90s club songs. And that’s all right, I suppose. Although it must be noted that one woman did, fleetingly, inject a little Bruce into the proceedings. Somebody (not me, I swear) had requested a Springsteen song before class, and she obliged with the only such offering on her iPod.
The song? “Streets of Philadelphia,” Bruce’s haunting hymn about alienation and dispossession, written for “Philadelphia,” in which Tom Hanks plays a lawyer afflicted with AIDS.
Not what you’d call a pump-up tune.
Some do it better than others. And with that in mind, let’s see how the 2013 Cleveland Indians did in selecting their pump-up tunes, in our much-anticipated annual “at-bat music” installment of CastroTurf.
Tip of the cap, as always, to Annie Merovich, the Indians’ manager of scoreboard operations, for providing the list.
Michael Bourn: “We Still In This B&*@#” by B.o.B. featuring T.I. and Juicy J. (Favorite lyric: “Stop blowing my buzz, quit killing it” reads like a comment on the Draft-pick compensation rules for free agents.)
Asdrubal Cabrera: “Limbo” by Daddy Yankee, “El Teke Teke” by Crazy Design, “No Me Corra Cantinero” by Vitico Castillo, “Dime Que Hago” by Farruko. (Favorite “Limbo” lyric: “Y esto esta como como pa como pa como pa rumbear,” which loosely translates to, “Watch out for those dugout steps.”
Jason Kipnis: “Satisfaction” by Benny Benassi (RL Grime Remix). (Favorite lyric: “And then just touch me/’Til I can get my/Satisfaction.” That’s actually the only lyric, so I didn’t have much to choose from.)
Nick Swisher: “Who I Am (What’s My Name)” by Snoop Dogg. (NOTE: An all-time classic video. As for the song itself, not exactly similar to “Hang On Sloopy.”)
Michael Brantley: “Started From The Bottom” by Drake. (Favorite lyric: “I’ve done kept it real from the jump/Living at my mama’s house, we’d argue every month.” A tale as old as time.)
Carlos Santana: Something called “Gibberish” (I tried Googling it, and I have no idea), “Solo Sucede” by Gabriel Cazali.
Mark Reynolds: “Cruise” by Florida Georgia Line with Nelly. (Favorite lyric: “She was sippin’ on Southern and singin’ Marshall Tucker/We were falling in love in the sweet heart of summer.” Another tale as old as time.)
Lonnie Chisenhall: “Crazy Train” by Ozzy Osbourne.
Drew Stubbs: “Sweet Nothing” by Calvin Harris, “Ima Boss” by Meek Mill featuring Rick Ross, “Radioactive” by Imagine Dragons.
Mike Aviles: “Hit ‘Em Up” by Tyga.
Jason Giambi: “Wolfpack” by C-Murder. (Note: This is the theme song for the New World Order team in World Championship Wrestling, but I’m sure you already knew that, right?)
Lou Marson: “What I Got” by Sublime (Note: No more “Easy Lover” by Phil Collins, but this will do.)
Ryan Raburn: “Kiss My Country #@$” by Rhett Atkins, “Whistlin’ Dixie” by Randy Houser.
Justin Masterson: “Rebirth” by Skillet.
Ubaldo Jimenez: “Rie y Llora” by Celia Cruz. (Favorite lyric: “Lo que es bueno hoy/Quizas no lo sea mañana” or “What is good today/May not be tomorrow.” Amen, Ubaldo, amen.)
Zach McAllister: “Return of the Mack,” by Mark Morrison.
Brett Myers: “Answers To No One” by Colt Ford. (Favorite lyric: “A jealous man is weak, so think before you speak/If you love ‘em let ‘em know, if you hate let it go.” Boom. Outta here.)
Carlos Carrasco: “Enter Sandman” by Metallica. (Favorite lyrics: “Dreams of war/Dreams of lies/Dreams of dragons fire/And of pitches high and tight” … or something like that.)
Bryan Shaw: “Sail” by AWOLNATION.
Matt Albers: “Sleep Now In The Fire” by Rage Against the Machine.
Cody Allen: “Take It Outside” by Brantley Gilbert.
Joe Smith: “My Kinda Party” by Jason Aldean.
Chris Perez: “Firestarter” by Prodigy.
Vinnie Pestano: “Walk” by Pantera. (Note: If you thought “Firestarter” was a strange choice for a closer, then what do you make of “Walk” for a setup man?)
We’ve spent the last few months talking about how interesting these 2013 Indians would be.
Well, they’re interesting, all right.
In what was supposed to be the ninth game of the season, the Indians were set to use their seventh starting pitcher (Corey Kluber: No. 7 in your depth chart, No. 1 in your heart). That would have put the Indians on pace to use 126 starting pitchers this season (which would of course be a record… but let’s not read too much into that, because I’m sure they won’t actually use more than 100).
Anyway, rain intervened to momentarily pause the merry-go-round, and now it’s Zach McAllister getting the nod in Game No. 9. So… six starters in nine days. That already sounds better, doesn’t it?
Of course, the fun doesn’t stop there. The Tribe has also already promoted two catchers — on the same day, no less. It’s not often you get to see the backup backup backup backstop suited up in early April, so cherish this memory.
You might not be stunned to learn Chris Antonetti hasn’t exactly cherished all the early transaction activity.
“Once the games start, a number of different things can happen,” Antonetti said. “But I don’t think we’ve ever had a situation — in my experience or Terry’s experience — where you lose two catchers in a span of five days. Obviously, it puts a strain on your roster. There are a number of different things we have to work through.”
The Indians tried to creatively work around Carlos Carrasco’s five-game suspension by having him on the active roster at the outset of the season. They didn’t imagine they’d need both Carrasco and Trevor Bauer in the first week and a half, and they definitely didn’t imagine Carrasco would cause another ruckus with a post-homer hit-by-pitch that may or may not earn him yet another suspension (a suspension that would have to be served whenever he makes it back to the big leagues, as Carrasco was already bumped back to Columbus on Wednesday).
Meanwhile, Scott Kazmir is slowly working his way back from an oblique injury and Brett Myers has already given up seven home runs in 10 1/3 innings and Ubaldo Jimenez had a homely home opener and Lou Marson got steamrolled by Desmond Jennings and Carlos Santana’s hot start was stalled by his inability to catch a Chris Perez pitch and Nick Swisher, Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall aren’t really hitting yet and… geez… by this point in this paragraph the Tribe’s 3-5 record really doesn’t look so bad, all things considered.
On the bright side, we’ve seen Justin Masterson circa 2011 thus far, while Michael Bourn and Mark Reynolds have arrived as advertised. They’ve had a calming effect amid the chaos.
Actually, Francona — the first to admit, in his words, “If I don’t think positively, who the heck is?” — doesn’t really feel it’s been quite as chaotic as it seems.
“The reason we’re doing these [transactions] is to keep things in order,” he said. “The hope would be things settle down and we go play baseball and see how good we can get. But sometimes you make moves just to keep things in order.”
Some teams thrive on stability, while others develop their identity in the midst of motion. The Orioles, en route to a Wild Card berth, used 52 players and made 178 roster moves last season. They were one of four postseason teams — the Yankees, A’s and Nationals being the others — to lose more than 1,000 days to the disabled list.
So, sure, the Tribe can certainly survive and maybe even be bettered by this spurt of uncertainty.
But if the rotation was a concern going into the season, it is downright alarming right now. Tribe starters not named Masterson have a 6.02 ERA, and stability does not figure to be a strength of that staff. Clearly, that’s not the kind of “interesting” you want to be.
PS: I had the pleasure today of sitting in on a special meeting between Mariano Rivera and about 30 Indians staff members who work behind the scenes. Rivera just wanted to say thank you to the people who make Progressive Field churn. One of the classiest things I’ve seen in baseball, as I wrote here.
PPS: In case you missed these recent stories: On Nick Swisher and Travis Hafner and what they demonstrate about the directions of the Indians and Yankees; On Tito Francona’s return “home” for the home opener.
You can’t tell the players without a scorecard. Or so the old saying goes. But you really don’t know the players’ hopes, dreams, fears and quirks without a media guide. Or so the public relations departments would lead you to believe.
Media guides, both figuratively and quite literally, don’t carry quite the weight they once did, in this Internet-savvy era. But even an Internet writer such as myself can be a big believer in the printed word.
And so, with the excitement about the Cleveland Indians higher than it has been since… oh, I don’t know… since Andy Marte arrived… and with so many new names on the roster, let’s do as we did a couple years back and dip into “The Guide” to see what we can learn:
EXCRUCIATING MEDIA GUIDE MINUTIAE FOR 2013…
- I never realized Terry Francona, who grew up in western Pennsylvania, was actually born in Aberdeen, South Dakota, while his father was playing for the Aberdeen Pheasants, an Orioles affiliate. So to the extent that the Indians actually have a Dakota quota (and isn’t that fun to say?), they have filled it with Francona in the wake of Travis Hafner’s departure.
- The only photo of former Guide cover boy Grady Sizemore in this or any media guide this year comes in the “Indians History” section. God, that’s sad.
- Ubaldo Jimenez lists “America’s Funniest Home Videos” as his favorite TV show. I don’t know, man. It’s just not the same without Saget.
- Justin Masterson and Joe Smith share the same birthday (March 22) and so do Lonnie Chisenhall and Drew Stubbs (Oct. 4).
- Speaking of which, birthdays are also listed for Urban Meyer (July 10) and Thad Matta (July 11), only because Tribe PR man and unabashed Buckeye fan Bart Swain wanted to see if anybody was paying attention.
- Stubbs’ favorite movie is “The Sting,” starring Shaker Heights’ own Paul Newman.
- Sandy Alomar Jr. has a soon-to-be-25-year-old daughter, and now many of you reading this feel ancient, don’t you?
- Scott Kazmir is part-Czechoslovakian.
- New bullpen coach Kevin Cash played in the 1989 Little League World Series as a member of Tampa Northside.
- Triple-A starter Scott Barnes’ favorite athlete is Lou Marson. Hey, I don’t blame him. Marson sometimes uses Phil Collins’ “Easy Lover” as his at-bat music, so why shouldn’t he be somebody’s favorite athlete?
- Francona and third base coach Brad Mills were teammates on the Arizona Wildcats’ College World Series team in 1979.
- Mike Aviles’ uncle, Ramon Aviles, played parts of four seasons with Boston and Philadelphia from 1977-81.
- Well, we already knew Trevor Bauer is a little bit different from the norm, and this confirms it further: His favorite band is Amon Amarth. I’ve never heard of Amon Amarth, but the 100-percent reliable Wikipedia confirms that it is a “melodic death metal band from Tumba, Sweden, founded in 1992. It takes its name from the Sindarin name of Mount Doom, a volcano in J. R. R. Tolkien′s Middle-earth.” So… there’s that.
- Bauer, much like my wife, is also a big, big fan of Duke basketball. I wonder if Coach K listens to Amon Amarth…
- First base coach Mike Sarbaugh had a minor role as a Pirates shortstop in “Major League II,” which, if you remember from my 2011 Media Guide entry, was, strangely, Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez’s favorite movie.
- Cody Allen’s favorite TV show is “Everybody Loves Raymond,” which is fortunate for him. Because you literally cannot turn on the TV and flip through the channels without landing on an “Everybody Loves Raymond” episode at some point. Go ahead, try this right now. I’ll wait. … See? It was on TBS, wasn’t it?
- Oh, Allen also lists Eric Church as his favorite musician. That is, unfortunately, about the closest any player on this roster is going to come to listing Springsteen as their favorite artist. As a Springsteen fan, I appreciate Church spreading the gospel, as it were, with his big hit. I look forward to future songs in which he references more obscure tracks like “Reno” and “Car Wash.”
- Michael Brantley aka Dr. Smooth’s favorite TV show is “The Price Is Right,” which makes sense given that ballplayers typically sleep in until (at least) 11 a.m. and work nights. On an unrelated note, Brantley got married over the winter and his wife, Melissa, is already expecting the couple’s first child. Smooth moves, indeed.
- Carlos Carrasco likes “Titanic.” This will not go over well with the Man Card Committee (but as a guy who inexplicably has “Party In The U.S.A.” on his iPod, I’m in no position to judge).
- Bryan Shaw was asked to list his favorite group or artist, and he replied, “Everything.” This can’t possibly be, can it? I mean, I know there are people who don’t have specific preferences, but to say you like “everything” is to embrace some truly miserable musical experiences.
- Hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo had one home run in his 38 Major League at-bats — Aug. 16, 1993, off Bill Gullickson. The more you know…
- Matt Albers’ favorite movie is “The Big Lebowski.” The Dude abides.
- One of Brett Myers’ favorite athletes growing up was Roger Clemens. And you know how Clemens has four kids whose names begin with a “K”? Well, same with Myers – daughter Kylie and sons Kolt, Koda and Kace.
- Myers loves him some Skynyrd.
- Chris Perez’s middle name is Ralph, which is exactly what he did on the mound after one of his saves last year.
- Want some truly obscure trivia? In the last 10 years, just two rookies or sophomores have hit five home runs in the first eight games of the season. One is Miguel Cabrera (with the Marlins in ’04) and the other is Mark Reynolds (with the D-backs in ’08).
- Reynolds’ favorite musician? Colt Ford, a former member of the Nationwide professional golf tour who now operates in the oft-overlooked genre of “country rap.”
- Nick Swisher’s favorite movie is “For Love of the Game,” which I’ve never seen. I can only hope it is better than a certain other Kevin Costner baseball movie.
- I never knew Carlos Santana’s favorite team growing up was the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Good thing I read “The Guide.”
PS: Did you read the Little Lake Nellie story? If not, here’s another chance.
PPS: Our MLB.com preview of the AL Central is here.