“Better ask questions before you shoot”
It’s late at night as I write this, so I’m not going to waste our time by getting into the whole “Player A” vs. “Player B” game in which I wow you with the sleight of hand of statistics attached to anonymity.
Let’s just get right to it:
Justin Masterson (2011-13): 3.86 ERA, 615 1/3 IP, 100 ERA+, 1.313 WHIP, 2.24 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9, 3.71 xFIP
Jake Westbrook (2004-06): 4.01 ERA, 637 2/3 IP, 108 ERA+, 1.325 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9, 3.86 xFIP
These stats beg the question: What is Justin Masterson?
Why, yes, of course he is. Masterson’s value to this organization in the immediate is considerable, particularly in the wake of Ubaldo Jimenez cashing in on his Mickey Callaway-aided overhaul and Trevor Bauer trending dangerously close to the “S” (or possibly, depending on your particular opinion, the “T”) in the game of B-U-S-T and Carlos Carrasco still looking like he might very well be bullpen material and so much unknown about the staying power of Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister or the secondary stuff of Danny Salazar and the presumption that there isn’t a secret assembly line pumping out another Salazar or two down in Akron and Columbus.
Add to that the influence he infuses, the clubhouse clout he wields and the generally pleasant personality he provides, and Masterson’s importance is unquestioned.
With the notable caveat that it ain’t my money, I was among the many in favor of the Indians taking Masterson up on his proposal of a shorter-term (and we now learn, via Ken Rosenthal, that it was a three-year deal with a lower average annual value than Homer Bailey’s $17.5 million arrangement with the Reds) contract, because, eternal optimist that I am, I think Masterson’s 2014 will more closely resemble his 2013 than his 2012.
But at a time when so many Tribe fans are shaking their fist at their Twitter feed and joining what DiaTriber Paul Cousineau used to call the “Dolanz R Cheep” chorus, I do think a little context counts. After all, we are all products of our times and subjects of our specific circumstances. And when you look at those above numbers, you are reminded that our perception of Masterson is significantly weighted in what’s surrounding him.
In 2014, Justin Masterson is an ace to the Indians.
In 2007, in an Indians clubhouse that contained CC Sabathia and the Artist Formerly Known as Fausto Carmona and the seeds of Cliff Lee, Justin Masterson would have been Jake Westbrook (albeit with a better strikeout rate).
And understand, there was value in Jake Westbrook. So much value, in fact, that the Indians signed him to a three-year, $33 million extension before that ’07 season (the extension was added to his pre-existing deal running through ’07 and therefore went through 2010), knowing full well that their chances of extending CC a year later would be remote, to say the least.
But that contract proved to be cumbersome. Westbrook was a completely capable No. 3 starter in 2007, when he still yielded the budget price of $6.1 million. But he blew out his elbow in ’08, missed all of ’09 and had an ERA+ 15 percent below league average when the Indians dealt him to St. Louis midway through 2010.
So for $33 million over three years, the Indians got 26 starts and a 4.26 ERA. Not great value.
They did, however, get Kluber in the three-way trade involving the Cards and Padres, so it wasn’t a total loss.
Still, though, not great value.
None of this to say that Masterson is going to follow the same path as Westbrook (my NCAA bracket is already testament to my inability to forecast the future), but, if we can take a moment to view this news through this particular prism, it does help settle the stomach a tad.
On a psychological level, declining the opportunity to lock up your ace at what is, by today’s standards, a reasonable ace rate is troubling, and the Indians will find themselves under specific public pressure to address the rotation in other ways next winter.
But on a pure statistical level, if $33 million over three for Westbrook didn’t turn out so swell, you can certainly see the hesitancy to fork over somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million over three for Masterson.
Of course, it’s only March, which means there are a lot of directions this could still go. As it stands, Masterson is in line for the same Draft pick compensation crunch that forced Ubaldo to play the waiting game for his $50 million deal (that one stretches over four years, for the record) and prompted Ervin Santana to bite the bullet and sign the very monetary guarantee ($14.1 million) he turned down mere months earlier.
Masterson’s career, while uneven, does not contain as disastrous a dip as those two endured at certain points on their path to free agency, so I presume he’ll fare well in the free-agent field. But projecting something six months out in said field is a fool’s errand. A 2013-like effort, and the qualifying offer shouldn’t be a hurdle. A step back, and the qualifying offer could be a goal.
Time will tell, as it tends to do.
All that can reasonably be said, for now, is that the Indians are taking a big risk here. Realistically, though, it might not be any more of a risk than they’d be taking by inking a $50 million extension with a guy whose numbers have, on measure, been pretty much Jake Westbrookish over the last three years.
The PR hit hurts, both in public and clubhouse perception. But it is, of course, the public’s reluctance to embrace last year’s efforts that only encourages the long-standing need to get bang for the buck. And as we’ve seen many times over — with the Westbrook deal or the Travis Hafner deal or the Ubaldo trade, to name but a few — public perception is a moving target.
PS: In case you missed my piece on the spunkiness of this Indians squad, check it out here.