“Got to begin again”

By Anthony Castrovince/MLB.com
On Twitter: @Castrovince

Questions facing the Indians as the second half — ceremonial as it may be — arrives:

1. Do they add a frontline starter?

At the moment, I doubt it, only because of the quality of starters purportedly available and the fact that so few teams are currently identifying themselves as sellers. There is little sense in the Indians going all-in on a short-term fix like Matt Garza. This team is built to contend beyond just 2013, and it’s definitely doubtful they’d be able to lock up Garza beyond 2013.

budnorrisStill, the Indians could benefit from another starting arm atop the rotation. Not that getting Zach McAlllister back won’t be a huge boost. Not that Corey Kluber hasn’t been encouraging. Not that Danny Salazar didn’t grab everybody’s attention in his big-league debut. But the rotation lacks the kind of tangible track records that would make you feel better about the postseason potential.

As far as outside options are concerned, Yovani Gallardo strikes me as Ubaldo 2.0, except without the absurdly excellent half a season Ubaldo had put together at the start of 2010. Rising pitch counts and declining velocity are not a good combo, and there would be questions about how well Gallardo would transition to the American League. On the bright side, he’s under contractual control for $11.25 million for 2014, which is not all that unreasonable given the market conditions.

Bud Norris seems to make more sense. He has already made the transition to the AL and has a 3.63 ERA at the break, though his WHIP has risen and his K/BB ratio has lowered. Still, he keeps the ball in the yard, he’s averaging six innings per start and he’s making just $3 million this year with two more arbitration seasons looming. That’s the kind of guy the Indians need to be targeting, to the extent that they’re going to pull the trigger on a deal at all. Maybe they’ll feel more comfortable going with what they’ve got. It would be hard to blame them, given the costs of an upgrade. We’ll see.

2. Can they fix the bullpen?

The bullpen has not been the team strength it once was, though Chris Perez’s numbers since his return (0.90 ERA, .216 average against) have been extraordinarily encouraging. The guy who worries you is Vinnie Pestano, because (and understand I’m only speculating here) it’s hard to believe he’s not fighting his way through some sort of physical limitation. Undoubtedly, ramping up quickly for the World Baseball Classic did him no favors. Whatever the case, not having Pestano settled into that eighth inning exposes Joe Smith to more wear and tear, and the Indians have to be careful with Cody Allen’s innings in his first full season. So you can sense the need for another setup option, though I’m not sure the Indians are inclined to delve too deeply into that market. What I do expect is for them to at least explore another left-handed setup option, because the trade market affords quite a few of those, as MLB Trade Rumors breaks down.

3. Do they trade Asdrubal Cabrera?

This question — one that came to the forefront upon Buster Olney’s speculation last week about a potential match between the Indians and Cardinals — prompts a question:

Now?

Listen, not that my opinion matters even the slightest, but I’ve been on the “trade Asdrubal” bandwagon (if such a thing exists) since the end of ’11. I thought, at the time, that his value would never be higher.

asdrubalI remained convinced they ought to trade Asdrubal last winter, when it seemed the Indians, with Mike Aviles in hand and questions about their status as true contenders hanging in the air, could take advantage of a weaker-than-weak free-agent shortstop market.

And however this 2013 season turns out, I’ll remain in favor of moving Asdrubal elsewhere, because he’ll still have trade value and the Tribe has reasonable bridges on-hand and on the farm to get to the Francisco Lindor era (with front-office fingers crossed in the hope that the Lindor era is more fruitful than, say, the Andy Marte era).

But right now, the Indians are in the thick of a division race or, at worse, a Wild Card race, and as much as it might make long-term baseball sense to deal Asdrubal for a top-end pitching prospect, that deal makes little sense in the immediate. I know he’s having a subpar season, and I know there are questions and concerns about the Tribe’s ability to hang in this division race. But they’ve made it this far, and dealing your starting shortstop/weakening your bench would be an awfully difficult sell to that clubhouse.

Again, I get trading Asdrubal, and I expect the Indians to do their due diligence and explore his worth. I just don’t necessarily agree with trading him now.

4. What are they going to get out of Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds?

Reynolds is batting .178 with a .532 OPS since May 7. Swisher is batting .192 with a .587 OPS since May 30. These are completely arbitrary endpoints on my part, but there’s enough distance between the endpoints to make you sweat a little bit, if you’re Terry Francona. Swisher’s shoulder situation can’t possibly be helping matters, and Reynolds is a guy prone toward boom and busts. But because there is little reason to believe the Indians are going to target a position player before the Trade Deadline, it’s incumbent upon these two to perform up to their perceived par. The Indians have actually scored the sixth-most runs per game in the Majors since June 1, but it was a fundamentally deeper offense when Reynolds was on a prodigious pace and Swisher was serving as a serviceable No. 4. They don’t need either of those guys performing out of their minds. But they need something.

5. How illustrative is the record against the Tigers?

The Indians are 3-9 against the Tigers, but the Tigers are 43 and 39 against everybody else. So there’s the difference in your division race, right there. If you’re going to beat them, you’ve got to beat them. The perceived schedule strengths of these two clubs are fairly similar, so there’s no denying the importance of Aug. 5-8 at Progressive Field and Aug. 30-Sept. 1 at Comerica Park.

Most of us are assuming the Tigers will outlast the Indians on pure talent level in the rotation and lineup. That’s not a knock on the Tribe, just the reality of a Little Caesar’s-aided investment on the part of Mike Ilitch. But the Indians still have the ability to alter that opinion, and it starts with the head-to-heads.

~AC

1 Comment

great insights and a perfectly well written article. i think you hit on the bottom line at the end of your article when you say we can’t compete with the tigers on a talent level. i predict the second half goes similar to last year where the tigers surge and the indians collapse.

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