"The dope's that there's still hope"

nostradamus.jpgIt’s that time of year again. Time for you to become the Nostradamus of the ‘net and lay down your official prediction for the 2010 Cleveland Indians’ record.

Last year, reader “henryscott35″ won this little contest (in which we play by “Price Is Right” rules… i.e. you must be the closest to predicting the Tribe’s win total, without going over) by predicting the Indians would win just 32 games. He was uncomfortably close, as the Tribe went on to go 65-97.

This year, I’m weighing in with a 78-84 finish, good for fourth place in the AL Central. Let’s hear your best guess.

~AC

43 Comments

I will say the Indians will finish 75-87. Talbot goes on to lead the team with 10 victories.

74-88; 4th in the AL Central.

I’m gonna be the optimist and say they will surprise everyone with a 81-81 finish.

I’m gonna say 72-90. Pardon my lack of optimism :)

well i will go insane here and go for 86-76.
i can see it happening just dont know if its 2010 or 2020

tribe goes 83-79. the beautiful weather and the spring performances of fausto and hafner have melted my cynicism. we’ll see soon enough if it’s just a mirage….

76-86 … I’d say 85-77 if they still had Cliff Lee

There is only one way this season can end: 162-0 baby! GO TRIBE! This is the year of the Cleveland Sweep! First Cavs then Indians then Browns!

Call me crazy, but hey, you gotta believe!

On the realistic prediction side, Carmona wins comeback player of the year, and is in strong contention for the Cy Young award

162-0 easy

85-77, Carmona wins 19 games. Hafner hits 23 homeruns and 50 doubles. Brantley shines. Tribe finds starting pitching….somewhere.

Well, Baseball prospectus, a couple weeks ago, had us finishing at 79-83 in a 3-way tie for second with Chicago and Detroit (with Minnesota winning the division at 81-81). I’m gonna say we finish at 80-82, at 3rd in the division. I think we will surprise a lot of people, and this team will be fun to watch.

80-82…..And that’s probably a little generous. As for the rest of the division, it’s so hard to say. I would guess Minnesota and Chicago will be in it until the end. I don’t think Detroit will make it all season, and will finish in third. They will be followed by the Indians and Royals.

I’ll go with the obvious and say 81-81, although I’ll also say that they’ll come in 3rd, ahead of both the Royals and the White Sox (you heard me) and behind the Twins and Tigers.

I’ll stick my neck out and say 84 and 78

I’ll stick my neck out a little farther and say 87-75. I think the Tribe is going to be MLB’s surprise team this season.

I’ll weigh in at 82-80. I have no idea where that will place us in the division, though . . . could be first or fourth or anywhere between.

remember this time last year when we were all optomistic and overcompensating for it in the W-L column? I know I did, and I see the same thing going on again this year.
73-89

ST,

re: Valbuena
I don’t think that he will be replaced by Grudz or Donald for that fact. His swing isn’t long enough to suggest that he will significantly slump in his sophomore year like Peralta did. Personally, I don’t want to see him given a day off against left-handers b/c he needs to show the FO that he can hit lefties if given the chance at the ML level.

I predict the Tribe will win 71 games and lose 88 with three rains out.

This season and last season aren’t even the same animal. Last season started off with a team of veterans with Wedge and Carl Willis at the helm. That team had no chemistry. Cliff Lee started out slow, Grady got hurt and Hafner still was not fully recovered from surgery. This season there’s a new coaching staff, Grady and Pronk are both healthy now Carmona seems to have his mechanics worked out and Choo and Cabrera have another full season under their belts. We still don’t have enough quality pitching but the division is weak, and with any luck we can be competitive.

88-74.

88-74. They’re scoring a helluva lotta runs this year to make up for the lackluster pitching.

everyone scores a ton of runs in spring training. i actually hope that we are not in contention at the AS break so we can unload a potentially productive Westbrook, Wood, and probably Marson too.

Might have Grudz at 2nd base after all, AM, Valbuena was hit in the hand today. And everyone scores runs in spring training except the Mariners. Which could indicate that the Mariners will score 2.5 runs per game in the regular season, and Cliff Lee will have a 2.90 ERA and lose 15 games … I think they should trade Westbrook but then re-sign him when he becomes a free agent. He owes the Indians some innings for a decent price. He should give them an “You paid me $20 million to play in 5 games” discount

Don’t forget Peralta, AM, if he has value. A half season of Marte would be interesting and it would be a good move if Chisenhall has managed to make his way up to Columbus by then.
And not to go all Ted on everyone, but here’s my blog thoughts:
http://kylegarret.blogspot.com/2010/04/2010-cleveland-indians-preview.html

I should probably revise my win prediction downward based on Chris Perez’s suckiness. Hopefully he’s just bored of spring training, he apparently can’t get minor leaguers out. I predict he’ll be back in Columbus by May. Hopefully Josh Judy’s arm is fine, I figure they’ll need him pretty soon … I wonder why there isn’t talk of converting Carrasco into a reliever? I think he’d do well at it. He suffers from bad-inningitis, which is fatal for starters but only mildly irritating for non-closer relief pitchers. If he went out and and walked 2 guys, just yank him, bring in Laffey to clean them up with a double play.

I have conditions:

If Fausto and Westbrook combine for more than 25 wins the Indians go 82-80.

If Hector Rondon is part of the rotation at the end of the year (not that I hate him or anything) then we go 75-87.

Fingers crossed for the first scenario.

70-92. worst in the AL

90-72. I refuse to be a pessimist.

ST, I cannot get behind your Carrasco to the bullpen scenario much like when you suggested that Rondon would be better served in the bullpen for the start of this year. Naturally I have to ask, are there any minor league SPs in our system that you actually like as a starter rather than a reliever?

I still think that Huff “won” the last rotation spot b/c Laffey’s stuff can translate to the bullpen whereas Sowers’ stuff obviously doesn’t in the minds of the FO. Huff is the easiest guy to demote upon his return whereas transitioning Laffey from starter to reliever to potentially starter again is what may have caused his injury. Smart move by the FO IMO if that’s their rationale behind it.

80 Wins

73 wins seems about right for this team.

Prediction: 70-92.
Hope: 81-81. A .500 year would be a huge step forward for this squad.

Sure AM, I like Rondon, Carrasco, Pino, de la Cruz, Hagadone, really the entire Kinston rotation as starters, I think Carrasco and Rondon could be real solid relievers right now though, and would probably perform considerably better than most of our current bullpen guys. Of course it goes back to wanting to develop prospects, or try to compete this year, if they were going all out to try to compete then I’d say one or both of those guys should be in the bullpen right now. (it would still leave them with considerable starting depth options, with Laffey, Pino and Sowers) As it is, better to let them develop as starters for now … I was thinking, regarding the talk of trading Peralta, Westbrook, Wood, etc, what would we actually trade them for? I don’t know that the farm system can take on any more mid-level prospects.

I guess i’m a huge optimist, but I’d like to think that Carmona bounces back to have a huge year, with maybe 15-16 wins. Chris Perez turns out to be an awesome closer and has 30-35 saves…though that is sort of contingent on the rest of the bullpen. I guess my prediction is 84-78, good for 2nd place in the AL central. Twins are going to win it, for sure, but I think the Indians’ first season under Manny Acta is going to surprise some people. At least I hope so…

I will also be optimistic… but not terribly so:

80-82, which I’d guess puts us between 3rd and 4th, and to make up for my indecisiveness, I’ll guess whichever one of those we’re not will be the Tigers.

66-96: Bad starting pitching, weak bullpen, below-average infield defense, and average offense. Someone please remind me why I bought season tickets again? Oh yeah, I still love the Tribe.

89-73, wild card! :D

I say 1 dollar errrr win Bob

84-78

hankmanscott

I actually think the people who are claiming 87-75 have good point.

When you project a team like Cleveland, you almost have to project them three different ways. You can look at their roster and say “If everyone stays healthy and there isnt one single major injury or setback, this team could push 90 wins.” This is a fact. The top half of Cleveland’s lineup has the potential to put up gobs of runs. We’ve seen it. And I dont think pre-season is a fluke. Another contributing factor is that even though we dont have 1 big bopper in the lineup, we have a fairly large number of guys that will go double digits in HRs. Another contributing factor is the fact the organization consistently finished strong in the second half under Wedge, even in the 2008 and even for a while in late 2009 but sputtered right at the very end. So this can be the top projection, 87 to 90 wins is not out of the realm of possibility. …. The problem is when you lose your FREAKING closer for a month.

The bottom projection is what we saw the last two seasons, minus CC and Cliff, and yeah you’re looking at pushing 100 losses.

Most people when they project, try to hit it around the middle and take all these into consideration. This is a 500 ball club in the real world. In a good year when you have no devastating injuries, like in 2007, yeah I agree with people that say we could win 87 games.

I’m thinking 72-89 with a rainout that they just don’t bother making up! Hey, it would be an improvement over last year.

86-76. Theres nothing more to say.

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